INVESTIGATION OF INVESTMENT RISKS OF THE STARTUP PROJECT BY FUZZY MODELING METHOD

Abstract

Subject. The development of technology today makes it possible to implement various ideas. It is an economic phenomenon like a startup based on ideas, and it is in these ideas that investors invest money. A startup is a high-risk venture. The article considers the risks of a startup from the point of view of an investor, for which it is necessary to evaluate economic indicators. There is an extensive literature on the evaluation of the effectiveness of the project based on economic indicators, including those based on the use of mathematical modeling tools, which require further close study. Since the indicators of a startup project cannot be clearly determined, it is proposed to consider them from the point of view of fuzzy modeling. Purpose. Develop a technology for assessing the investment risks of a startup project based on the theory of fuzzy sets. Methodology. To assess the risks of a startup project, an integrated assessment methodology is used. The method is based on the theory of fuzzy sets... Subject. The development of technology today makes it possible to implement various ideas. It is an economic phenomenon like a startup based on ideas, and it is in these ideas that investors invest money. A startup is a high-risk venture. The article considers the risks of a startup from the point of view of an investor, for which it is necessary to evaluate economic indicators. There is an extensive literature on the evaluation of the effectiveness of the project based on economic indicators, including those based on the use of mathematical modeling tools, which require further close study. Since the indicators of a startup project cannot be clearly determined, it is proposed to consider them from the point of view of fuzzy modeling. Purpose. Develop a technology for assessing the investment risks of a startup project based on the theory of fuzzy sets. Methodology. To assess the risks of a startup project, an integrated assessment methodology is used. The method is based on the theory of fuzzy sets. Financial indicators are defined: net present value, internal rate of return, which will allow to assess the risks of investment start-up projects. In conducting the assessments, project indicators were used as fuzzy parameters. For this purpose, the membership functions are constructed, which establish the degree of belonging to the fuzzy set. As the type of function, a triangular view is selected and parameters are set that correspond to pessimistic, basic and optimistic scenarios. Results. The introduction of methods of researching risks of a startup, one of which is proposed in this work, will help limit and control risks, conduct their comparative analysis with a given degree of accuracy, and build various scenarios. The considered fuzzy-multiple approach can be used to develop a risk management procedure that will reduce the number of startups that do not achieve success. function show_eabstract() { $('#eabstract1').hide(); $('#eabstract2').show(); $('#eabstract_expand').hide(); } ▼Показать полностью