Mitsek Sergey A.

The article is devoted to the statistical and econometric analysis of Russia’s exports and the factors that determine their dynamics. The study uses time series of data on export volumes and export prices, as well as econometric estimates. The methodological basis of the study is the econometric macroeconomic model of Russia created by the authors.

Based on Russian and international databases, the authors prove that Russia’s exports were growing rapidly until 2008, but then their pace slowed down. Russia’s share in the world trade has been declining in recent years.

The authors conclude that despite the fall in export prices, Russia has been increasing its physical export volumes since 2013. The fall in prices was caused by flooding of the world commodity markets by the exports from the developing countries. Exports of energy commodities suffered the most from the fall in prices.

Long-run elasticities of the main factors and multipliers of exogenous variables based on econometric estimates of the model parameters show that the amount of exports is most strongly affected by global demand. At the same time price and exchange rates elasticity of exports is low. The reason for this may be the small size of Russian domestic market, the peculiarities of Russian fiscal system (export duties, fiscal rule), protective measures of importers, the dependence of exporters on imports, the increase in domestic prices in the Russian market, etc.

Analysis of export duties shows that their role as a source of budget revenue is declining. They rather dis- tort the price structure and deprive Russian exporters of foreign markets, so it is recommended to gradually refuse from this tool.

During the pandemic Russian exports and export prices dropped due to the declining global demand.

At the same time the dynamics of non-energy exports showed higher stability.

The obvious solutions for the further development of Russia’s exports will be to increase the share of non-energy goods and services in its structure, and to expand trade with China and the countries of South- east Asia. The growth of global demand, the governmental support for exports and investment in transport and port infrastructure, the gradual abolition of export duties, the availability of free factors of production will contribute to export growth.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic trends of the Russian Federation economy in 2000-2018. The subject of the study is the dynamics of the basic macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product, fixed capital investment, exports and imports, exchange rate, inflation, and others. The main task is to identify the factors that affect the change of these variables. Its decision will provide recommendations on economic policies that should be adopted to accelerate economic growth and macroeconomic stabilization in general. The methodological basis of the research was an econometric model developed by the authors, as well as tools for macroeconomic analysis, described both in classical works on macroeconomics and in applied works devoted to the analysis of the economy of specific countries. The information base of this study was, first, the statistical databases of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Bank of Russia. Statistical data from the RIM group of the Institute of national economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the World Bank were also used. Using these data, based on the author s econometric model, the elasticity of the dependent variables of the models equations was calculated, which made it possible to determine the direct influence of various factors on macroeconomic variables. Second, the model was used to calculate multipliers of exogenous variables, which allowed us to assess the impact of economic policy and foreign economic factors on the main indicators of the Russian economy. The analysis proved that the decline in economic growth was affected by a slowdown in the growth of the labor force, lack of investment, stagnation of aggregate factor productivity, slowing aggregate demand and rising prices for capital goods. The increase in state-controlled prices and tariffs has made a significant contribution to the Russian inflation. The analysis of multipliers showed a strong dependence of the Russian economy on demographic and foreign economic factors, which creates obstacles to its further growth. It is concluded, first, that monetary and fiscal policy must be eased and second, that the only sustainable factor for long-term growth of the Russian economy can be an increase in aggregate factor productivity, which requires a significant increase in investment in technical modernization.