Lytneva N.A.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to define conceptual approaches to developing a strategy for developing investment activity of organizations in conditions of instability and uncertainty of the economy, developing recommendations on the formation of the investment strategy of organizations in accordance with the federal program that defines long-term and short-term strategic planning tasks in Russia. Methods. To achieve the stated goal of the research, a wide range of methods and techniques for collecting and summarizing information was used. The main of them are general scientific methods consisting of: scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, comparative and system-functional analysis, modeling, method of hierarchy analysis, and approaches to studying the problem, such as program-target and system. Results. The results of the study are characterized by the justification of modern methods and techniques used to develop an investment strategy of the organization with an emphasis on the program-targeted approach that allows to systematize the actions of managing subjects in developing investment management strategies at different levels of management, taking into account external and internal factors. Scientific novelty. Scientific novelty consists in justifying the directions of the investment strategy at different levels of the hierarchical management system, developing an investment strategy model and a management system for its implementation based on the program-target approach, which allows defining key directions for regulating investment activity in the hierarchical management system.

Purpose. To develop the effective model of the short-term forecasting of gross municipal product. Methods. The methodological framework of research methods is provided through the methods of structural, logical and statistical analysis and graphical method. Results. On the basis of the conducted research an effective tool for short-term forecasting (2nd quarter lag) has been offered. It has been found that the effectiveness of Brown's adaptive model of forecasting the level of gross municipal product makes 95 % (as evidenced through the observance of all requirements of the model adequacy). Scientific novelty. Scientific novelty is in: • the author's proposed approach of short-term forecasting; • using the Brown's adaptive model in the research.