Komarevtseva O.O.

Purpose. The purpose of this paper is to identify problems and form recommendations on municipal debt management based on the foresight-research. Methods. Such methods as graphical analysis, visualization of qualitative analytical data, modeling and expert estimates are the methodological core of the article. Results. On the basis of the conducted research the author has predicted three stages of development of a municipal debt indicator. Therefore, in accordance with the short-term period (2016) level of municipal debts across the country will grow rapidly, in socio-economic development of the territories of the municipalities there is a noticeable downturn. In the medium term, the situation of uncertainty in the scope of municipal debts persists. Extension of municipal debt continues for a period of 20-30 years, due to a lack of funds local self-government bodies request assistance from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, a reduction in social spending and an increase in the borrowing limit are carried out. In this case, Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation has started solving problems in the field of non-effective management of municipal. Long-term perspective differs very little from the medium-term. Continued accumulation of problems in this area leads to a critical situation. Prepared recommendations on the management of municipal debt are associated with the development of the municipal debt management techniques, the introduction of administrative responsibility of the regulatory authority of a municipal entity (local administration), the transfer of a part of the VAT to the municipal level, training of a municipal debt management team, implementation of foresight tools and simulation modelling of the situation with municipal debt, adaptation of the best foreign experience on municipal debt management. Scientific novelty. The novelty of the research consists in the following. 1. Use of the views of lay experts in foresight research as a basis to study views of citizens concerning economic development of a municipal entity; 2. Implementation of this forecasting method for generating recommendations on the municipal debt management; 3. Modeling mapping the situation of municipal debt management as a result of the study.

Purpose. To develop the effective model of the short-term forecasting of gross municipal product. Methods. The methodological framework of research methods is provided through the methods of structural, logical and statistical analysis and graphical method. Results. On the basis of the conducted research an effective tool for short-term forecasting (2nd quarter lag) has been offered. It has been found that the effectiveness of Brown's adaptive model of forecasting the level of gross municipal product makes 95 % (as evidenced through the observance of all requirements of the model adequacy). Scientific novelty. Scientific novelty is in: • the author's proposed approach of short-term forecasting; • using the Brown's adaptive model in the research.

Purpose. Development of integral index of development level of municipal education determining the most significant potentials showing a level of the territory functioning. Methods. Methodological research basis is introduced by the methods from the general to the specific, the methods of induction and deduction, economic-statistical analysis, graphical methods, classification methods, generalization, etc. Results. On the basis of the conducted research the authors identified and solved the main problems concerning the assessment of local power bodies’ activity. The found out that the indices in the annual report of municipal districts on efficient activity of local power bodies did not provide adequate assessment of those territories development and were averaged and non-informative. In this connection the authors were proposed to add integral indices of territories development to their report. In its turn it permits to identify it as a general situation of a municipal entity functioning and substantiate main priorities of the targets for the territory functioning. Scientific novelty is: the proposed authorized approach to assessment of local power bodies’ activity; the proposed classification of potentials forming integral index.